Ruffled feathers

From "The Economist" magazine

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http://www.economist.com/blogs/pomegranate/2013/12/dispatch-iran

Dispatch from Iran

Dec 17th 2013, 21:58 by S.R. | TEHRAN

IRAN’S new government of President Hassan Rohani is facing mounting opposition at home for its endeavours abroad. The administration dodged any serious backlash from conservatives in Tehran for its interim nuclear deal with six world powers. But recent remarks by government ministers have caused discontent all the way to the top of the powerful military.

On December 10th, in a speech at Imam Sadegh University in Tehran,  Muhammad Ali Jafari, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), took a swing at Foreign Minister and chief nuclear negotiator Muhammad Javad Zarif, who on December 4th at Tehran University said that American forces would only need “one bomb” to destroy Iran’s military capability. “We consider him to be an experienced and expert diplomat, but he does not have experience in the military field to make these statements,” Mr Jafari said. In fact, if America were to strike Iran with thousands of bombs, Mr Jafari continued, only 10 to 20% of Iran’s military capability would be destroyed.

The criticism did not end there. Mr Jafari criticised some of the Rohani Government’s “methods” for being similar to those of the previous administration under the now widely-ostracised Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The current government has become “polluted with Western doctrines and a fundamental change must be made,” Mr Jafari said. Meanwhile, 53 members (out of 290) of Iran’s parliament have summoned Mr Zarif to explain his comments.

While some conservative groups in Iran have been wary of the new government from its first days in office, Mr Rohani has enjoyed backing from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to engage in nuclear talks. He and Mr Zarif also went to great pains to secure the approval of powerful conservative clerics. As a result, Mr Rohani can boast unprecedented progress on the nuclear file, but the reproach from Mr Jafari is a reminder that not everyone is equally impressed. “As soon as Rohani begins to rear his head and try something new, we see this pressure from the conservative wings,” says Alex Vatanka, an Iran expert at the Middle East Institute in WashingtonDC. “The reason is that reforms mean less power for people like Jafari.”

Indeed, Mr Rohani seems keen to curb the direct influence of the Revolutionary Guard on the government. He appointed only four IRGC veterans to his 18-strong ministerial cabinet. The president also replaced all the governors-general of Iran’s 31 provinces, who were chosen by Mr Ahmadinejad. Among Rohani's new appointees, only four are connected to the Guard (that's the point: it is both in the cabinet and in the provinces he is purging the IRGC), while Mr Ahmadinejad had picked 17 provincial representatives from the ranks of the IRGC.

Mr Jafari, a veteran of the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, considers the strength of Iran’s military as key. “What caused the enemy to sit at the negotiations table was the nation of Iran’s defense capabilities, which we hope to guard,” he said on December 12th in a speech at a congress for the Martyrs of Scientific Jihad.

It is hardly the first time the commander has admonished a sitting government. While factions of the IRGC had it out for Mr Ahmadinejad during much of his presidency, Mr Jafari was also instrumental in checking the power of Mr Ahmadinejad’s predecessor. In a 1999 letter addressed to then-president Mohammad Khatami, to which Mr Jafari was a main signatory, 24 IRGC commanders gave the president an ultimatum, warning that if he did not deal forcefully with student protests ongoing at the time, their patience would run out. When government forces subsequently cracked down on the protests, they also spelled the end of much of Mr Khatami’s reformist agenda. So far, Mr Rohani has navigated the deep divisions within the Iranian system skilfully. To avoid the same fate as Mr Khatami, he will have to know when to take a step back.
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